Global Corn Production: Output Slips, Demand Marches On

After a record-setting 2025/26 campaign, global corn production is forecast to tighten in 2026/27 as output retreats, consumption keeps climbing, and ending stocks shrink for the second consecutive year.

Forecast

Global corn production is forecast at 1,295,384 thousand metric tons for the 2026/27 marketing year. Still the second-largest harvest on record, this figure represents a meaningful step down from the prior year's all-time high of 1,312,682 thousand metric tons. The retreat in global corn production is concentrated in two heavyweight exporters — the United States and Argentina — where crop setbacks more than cancel out gains in Brazil and China.

At the same time, global consumption is projected at 1,314,792 thousand metric tons, outpacing global corn production and forcing a drawdown of the world's stockpile for the second year running. The net result: ending stocks are expected to fall to 277,544 thousand metric tons, down from 296,952 thousand the year before, a decline driven in almost equal measure by tighter supplies in China and the United States.

Global corn production: records yield to reality

The United States remains the world's largest corn producer, though its output is forecast to fall to 406,292 thousand metric tons in 2026/27, down from the record 432,342 in 2025/26. Despite the pullback, the US holds its position comfortably ahead of all other producing nations.

China, the world's second largest producer, is forecast to climb to 307,000 thousand metric tons, up from 301,240, a meaningful uptick that reflects continued investment in yield-improving technology across the country's vast growing regions.

Brazil, the Southern Hemisphere's powerhouse, is also expected to expand its harvest to 139,000 thousand metric tons, up from 135,000, cementing its status as an increasingly indispensable supplier to global buyers.

Global corn production outlook: selected countries (thousand metric tons)

Argentina is projected to retreat to 55,000 thousand metric tons from 59,000, constrained by weather uncertainty and tightening input economics.

World corn trade: the US holds its ground

Global corn trade is forecast at 207,300 thousand metric tons, down from 209,409, reflecting softer export availability tied to the decline in global corn production from Argentina and the United States.

The United States is forecast to ship 80,000 thousand metric tons, down from 82,000, still enough to hold the top spot among exporters. Brazil presses higher to 44,000 thousand metric tons, up from 43,000, narrowing the gap with its northern rival.

Top exporters 2026/27 (thou. MT)

Top importers 2026/27 (thou. MT)

On the import side, Mexico retains its position as the single largest corn buyer at 27,000 thousand metric tons, up from 26,300. Vietnam continues to absorb growing volumes at 15,900 thousand metric tons, up from 15,300, as its livestock sector expands. China's import footprint stands at 6,000 thousand metric tons, reflecting Beijing's sustained policy emphasis on food self-sufficiency.

Corn consumption outlook

Global corn consumption is forecast at 1,314,792 thousand metric tons, a record, driven by both feed and residual use and food, seed, and industrial (FSI) applications. Feed demand is expected to expand across almost every major region, with only trivially small softening in North America, the Caribbean, and the Middle East.

Corn consumption: key markets (thousand metric tons)

FSI use warrants particular attention in two regions. In South America and South Asia, fuel ethanol projects are driving incremental demand for corn-based feedstocks, adding a structural, policy-linked layer to consumption growth. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the driver is more elemental: direct human consumption of corn as a food staple, with regional consumption forecast at 92,699 thousand metric tons, up from 91,487.

Regional corn outlook: diverging fortunes

North America's global corn production outlook reflects the US shortfall, with the region's aggregate output forecast at 445,392 thousand metric tons, down from 472,909.

South America is poised to expand to 209,210 thousand metric tons, up from 208,490, as Brazil's record output more than compensates for Argentine weakness.

East Asia remains the world's dominant consumption hub at 359,080 thousand metric tons, up from 355,230, fuelled almost entirely by China's vast livestock feeding complex.

Regional highlights (thousand metric tons)

Southeast Asia's import demand continues its upward trajectory at 25,411 thousand metric tons, up from 24,461, reflecting expanding aquaculture, poultry, and swine sectors across Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Thailand.

Sub-Saharan Africa consumption is forecast at 92,699 thousand metric tons, up from 91,487, a new high, and the region will remain dependent on both regional global corn production and commercial imports to bridge supply gaps.

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Source: USDA World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), May 2026. All figures in thousand metric tons. Global corn production, trade, and stock data reflect October/September trade year and local marketing years respectively. 2026/27 figures are USDA forecasts as of May 2026 and subject to revision.