Global Sugar Production 2026/27 Overview

The world's sugar balance sheet is tightening. According to the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service's May 2026 Sugar: World Markets and Trade circular, global sugar production in 2026/27 is forecast at 184.9 million metric tons (raw value), down 1.2 million tons from the prior year. Exports are expected to ease to 62.3 million tons, while ending stocks inch up slightly to 44.4 million.

This global sugar production 2026/27 overview breaks down what's moving the numbers, which countries are driving the decline, and what the data means for buyers, traders, and industry watchers.

The Big Picture: Why Global Output Is Falling

Production peaked at 186.1 million tons in 2025/26 and is now pulling back. The headline story: Brazil, the EU, the U.S., and Thailand are all producing less, and their combined losses outpace India's recovery.

The drop is not a crisis (it's rebalancing). Ethanol economics, weather volatility, input cost pressure, and government policy are each playing a role across different markets. Consumption, meanwhile, remains essentially flat at 180 million tons, which means the surplus cushion is thin but holding.

Country-by-Country Breakdown

Brazil, The World's Largest Producer Steps Back

Brazil produces more sugar than any other country, and 2026/27 marks a meaningful shift. Output is forecast at 42.5 million metric tons, down 1.3 million from the previous year.

The driver is the ethanol/sugar split. Following a policy change in August 2025 (raising the anhydrous ethanol blend in gasoline from 27% to 30%), mills are now expected to favor ethanol at a 52/48 ratio. Strong domestic ethanol demand is pulling cane away from sugar production. For a deeper look at how Brazil's flex-fuel system compares globally, see our breakdown of Brazilian sugarcane ethanol vs U.S. corn ethanol.

With lower output, Brazil's exports are also forecast to decline from 34.1 million tons (2025/26) to 33.6 million, still by far the world's largest export volume, but a notable retreat from the record 35.9 million tons shipped in 2023/24.

India, Production Recovery Drives Optimism

India is the world's second-largest producer and the biggest consumption market, making its output forecast critical to global balances. After two difficult years, 2026/27 brings a rebound: production is forecast to rise 3.6 million tons to 33.6 million.

Back-to-back favorable monsoons restored groundwater reserves, improving yields and expanding planted area to nearly 6.0 million hectares (a 2% increase year-on-year). The leading states (Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Karnataka) together account for close to 60% of national output.

India's sugar sector operates under one of the world's most interventionist regulatory frameworks. The Fair and Remunerative Price (FRP) mechanism guarantees growers a minimum price. Government quotas control how much each mill can sell domestically. Import tariffs activate when supplies are deemed sufficient. And export quotas are adjusted to protect consumers. For a deeper dive into how these tools shape global flows, see our analysis of India's sugar export policy.

In 2026/27, India's exports are forecast to rise 100,000 tons to 3.6 million, heading primarily to Sudan, Libya, and Somalia. Imports are expected to fall 200,000 tons to 2.4 million, with raw sugar from Brazil accounting for most of the inflow.

European Union, Sugarbeet Squeeze

EU production is forecast to fall 1.2 million tons to 14.4 million. Weak prices and high input costs are pushing beet growers toward alternative crops, reducing harvested area. With domestic output shrinking, imports are rising while exports are forecast lower and consumption remains flat.

China, Stability Through Policy Support

China's output is forecast nearly unchanged at 12.7 million metric tons, sustained by normal growing conditions and stable sugarcane and sugarbeet area. Local governments in Guangxi and Yunnan provinces actively support production through subsidies and mechanization programs. China also holds the world's highest ending stocks forecast (4.0 million tons in 2026/27, up significantly from 2.8 million the year before). Imports and consumption are expected to remain flat.

Thailand, Policy Cuts Output

Thailand's production is forecast down 1.8 million tons to 9.5 million, the sharpest proportional decline among major producers. The culprit is a farm-gate price set below the cost of production by the Office of the Cane and Sugar Board, explicitly to reduce inflation. Lower prices discouraged planting, and area fell accordingly. Despite the production cut, exports are expected to hold steady at 6.0 million tons.

United States, Modest Decline, More Imports

U.S. production is forecast slightly lower at 8.0 million metric tons. To compensate, imports are projected to rise nearly 600,000 tons to 3.0 million, reflecting WTO quota obligations, Mexican sugar flows, re-exports, and high-tier tariff imports. Consumption is unchanged; the shortfall shows up in lower ending stocks.

Trade Flows: Where Sugar Is Moving

Global exports are forecast at 62.3 million tons, slightly below last year's 62.6 million. Brazil leads by a wide margin at 33.6 million, followed by Thailand (6.0 million), Australia (3.6 million, up on improved output), and India (3.6 million).

On the import side, China tops the list at 5.45 million tons, followed by Indonesia (4.2 million), the U.S. (3.0 million), UAE (2.7 million), and the EU (2.55 million). Several markets (including Bangladesh, Libya, and Lebanon) are seeing import volumes rise, reflecting population growth and food security dynamics.

Ending Stocks: A Slim Cushion

Global ending stocks are forecast to rise slightly to 44.4 million metric tons, but the distribution is uneven. Thailand holds the most at 13.5 million, followed by India at 6.5 million (recovering from a multi-year low of 5.1 million in 2025/26) and China at 4.0 million. The United States sits at 1.5 million, the lowest level in five years.

For more on the dominant climate risk shaping Brazil, India, and Thailand's output, see our overview of El Niño's impact on sugar production.

This analysis draws directly from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service Sugar: World Markets and Trade circular (May 2026), based on FAS overseas post reports and secondary data.